Strategy Reports​

  • Actionable Ideas for 2017 – January 2017
  • Equity & FX to be the harbinger of Global Volatility Expansion between 2017 and 2020
  • DXY to be the key theme in 2017 & final leg to play out by Q3;  2017 range of 96-107
  • GBP to appreciate by 8-10%; Select EM currencies to weather FX volatility tide
  • All major ‘R’s – Rupee, Real, Rand, Ruble, Ringgit & Rupiah may appreciate 5-10% against USDINR to continue outperformance among EMs; USDINR 2017 range of 63.63-68.88
  • Mexico Peso to appreciate by 8-12% despite Trump noise; in-line with our positive EM FX outlook
  • Easy phase of bull run is over in base metals; 2017 to see consolidation; Aluminium to outperform
  • Despite remonetisation & rising DM yields fear, we maintain our 44,000 Sensex target in next few years

INR outperformance successfully played out in 2017 Sensex on target to hit 44,000 by the end of 2018

  • Investment Ideas for Q2 2017, Macro Strategy – April 2017
  • Long UVXY or any leveraged volatility ETF will be effective portfolio insurance in Q2 and especially in Q3
  • DXY to continue to trade within a relatively wider range of 96-107
  • USDGBP to appreciate further towards our 2017 target of 1.35
  • USDCNY 2017 range at 6.77-7.17; strong possibility of move to 6.77 in the near term
  • USDINR target achieved; revised range at 63.63-65.65 for Q2/Q3
  • Nymex crude 2017 range at US$43-59; underweight call for Q2 & Q3 
  • Base metals to correct in Q2; sharp fall in Q3; buy on dips strategy for aluminium
  • US & Japan equity trading top likely in Q2/Q3
  • India equity: Overweight in Q1; Equalweight in Q2; Underweight in Q3; Overweight in Q4

Nymex crude successfully traded within our 2017 range USDINR successfully traded within our tight range for Q2/Q3

  • Investment Ideas & Themes – November 2017
  • Overweight India and China, Nifty target of 14,000 by FY2019-20
  • Overweight commodities and crude in Q4 CY17
  • Long term top in DXY in place

Long term top in DXY in place Commodities and crude show significant upside in Q4 Nifty rallied by 6% in Q4

  • Actionable Ideas for 2016 – January 2016
  • Indian equities to outperform in 2016 with minimum 20% returns
  • Crude has bottomed out at US$ 26; good appreciation likely in H2 2016
  • Global commodity medium term bottom formation in H1 2016
  • INR to remain stable in the range of 65.55- 68.88
  • DXY bull run to continue after consolidation in H1; 2016 range 95-105
  • Year end S&P target range 1800-2300; BRL to appreciate 10-15%
  • ECB to ease further in March, before reversing course. DM yields to bottom out in H1

Successfully called crude bottom at $26 Identified medium term bottom formation in global commodities

  • Investment Ideas for Q3 2016, Macro Strategy – July 2016
  • quant Bearish Bets Indicator at life time high
  • Q3 upmove to deliver best quarterly returns in 2016
  • Defensive sectors will deliver better returns in Q3 CY 2016
  • US equity to outperform among DMs
  • Global inflation has bottomed out
  • Medium term bottom is in place for global commodities

Successfully called bottom on global inflation 10-15% appreciation target on BRL achieved

  • Investment Ideas & Macro Strategy – September 2016
  • US equities to resume uptrend in H2 after brief halt
  • DM yields are undergoing gut wrenching bottom formation process
  • Inflation has started to bottom out globally
  • Fed rate hike likely post November Presidential elections
  • ECB likely to ‘taper’ APP post March 2017
  • BoJ unlikely to expand stimulus further
  • Maintain long TIPS, short UST

Captured bottom formation in US yields Nifty resumes upmove as per Expectations

  • Investment Ideas & Themes – November 2016
  • Final leg of bull-run in DXY, rally which started in 2008 will peak out in CY 2017
  • Final leg of up-move is about to begin in DXY, biggest risk in the short-term for EMs
  • Allocations will shift from DM bonds and precious metals
  • Re-monetization & transitory pains will be overcome by long-term gains
  • FIIs over-owned stocks with immediate headwinds should be avoided

S&P year end target achieved DXY year end target achieved First on street to identify ECB reducing APP size

  • Big Calls of Q1 2015, Macro Strategy – January 2015
  • Roller coaster ride for global assets
  • USD to outperform JPY, Euro, CAD, AUD, GBP, BRL, MXN, RUB, RAND; expect 6-10% depreciation. Euro depreciation to gather momentum
  • Yuan weakening to continue; year-end target 6.4-6.5
  • China to be the surprise element
  • Global commodities still a falling knife; underweight crude, precious & base metals
  • Divergence in DM monetary policy to intensify and accelerate
  • India bond yields retain downward bias trajectory

Midcaps outperformed with NiftyM50 up ~16% from lows

  • Recommendations for Q3 2015, Macro Strategy – June 2015
  • Trading top in China and Germany ; sharp fall in metals
  • US Dollar and equity remain the best investments for 2015 among DMs
  • Overcoming disinflation through monetary accommodation will continue to be the theme
  • Avoid exposure to commodities in general, maintain short positions
  • Buy on dips’ strategy continues in H2 of CY 2015
  • EURUSD depreciation to gather momentum, year-end target of 1.05-1.12
  • US Fed could implement a ‘token’ rate hike

EUR reaches our target. Revised year-end target to 1.05-1.10 China outperformed significantly 

  • Investment Ideas & Themes – September 2015
  • Bank Nifty on track to cross by 36000 in two years
  • quant Fear Index spike to near 7-year high creating medium-term bottom
  • Bank Nifty capitulion indicator spikes
  • We expect USDINR to trade in 64-67 range

Big contratrion call Bank nifty capitulation indicator spikes

  • Market Ideas for Q4 2015, India Focus – October 2015 
  • Impending fall in precious metals; Trading bottom in EM currencies
  • The ‘most hated’ bull run of the decade continues
  • Fed policy normalisation will be very measured
  • Spike in quant Capitulation Indicator suggests  a good bottom from
  • a long-term perspective
  • qGR believes that downside is limited and upside will be 20% in the next six months Midcaps will be the surprise element of the counter-fear rally

Yuan depreciated sharply reached target range of 6.4-6.5 Base metal cracked big time

  • Investment Ideas & Themes – October 2014
  • The Bank Nifty index moved above its multi-year highs in May-June 2014 and has been consolidating for the past few months
  • Cycle Analytics indicates that the index has right setup for its next rally.
  • The current breakout post consolidation will take the index up to 17840-20000 by June 2016 based on the major 30 quarter time cycle
  • Bank Nifty will cross 18000 in next few months
  • Banks will deliver positive returns

Bank nifty target of 18000 achieved in Nov 2014